1. New Hampshire is dominated by independent voters.
This enduring myth gets resurrected every election cycle. 2016 is no exception: “New Hampshire’s large numbers of independent voters have contributed to its reputation as a mercurial swing state,” the Boston Globe reported in November. This “mercurial” reputation is fostered by such articles, which confuse voters who register as “undeclared” with “independents.”
But “undeclared” voters are not necessarily independent….
2. Endorsements matter.
In the political-science world, endorsements are an important signal of who will win their party’s nomination. And local politicians’ endorsements of presidential contenders in New Hampshire are regularly trumpeted. The Globe publishes an “endorsement tracker” that tallies the support for each candidate from state pols.