[Ed. – The never-examined premise of the Peak Brigade is that conditions are static, and nothing about technology or our approach to the resources will change because of new, undirected developments. Yet conditions are never static, and technology and approaches always change.]
These stupid predictions of the end of oil have been going on for most of the last century. Just over 100 years ago, the U.S. Bureau of Mines estimated total future production at 6 billion barrels, yet we’ve produced more than 20times that amount. In 1939 the Department of the Interior predicted U.S. oil supplies would last 13 years. I could go on.
The wonder is that smart people such as Nobel Prize winners Krugman and Obama haven’t learned anything from history and instead keep regurgitating these myths about “running out.”
The folks at the Institute for Energy Research recently published a study showing three data points: first, the government’s best estimate of how much oil we had in America 50 years ago. The second was how much U.S. oil has been drilled out of the ground since then. And the third is how many reserves there are now. Today we have twice as many reserves as we had in 1950. And we have already produced almost 10 times more oil than the government told us we had back then.
Technology and innovation account for the constant upping the amount of “finite” oil we can produce. …