Even though Clinton’s chances of being the Democratic nominee have declined, I still think that she’s the overwhelming favorite, though my reasons differ from other analysts’ views….
1) “Her polling is fundamentally different than in 2007.” Back in 2014 and early 2015, some observers liked to point out that she held large leads in the polls in 2007, yet still lost the nomination. The standard counter – which I liked to employ – was that her leads in 2014 and 2015 were simply in a different league….
2) “Late entrants are disastrous.” This isn’t a major argument, but it sets up some of my responses to other arguments in Clinton’s favor. It’s true that every cycle sees a last-minute entry: Rick Perry, Fred Thompson, and Wesley Clark, for example. For all, their first days were their best days.