If you’re trying to figure out what exactly to make of Donald Trump’s candidacy, you’re not alone. I think all pundits are scratching their heads a bit trying to game out the trajectory of his bid for the Republican nomination….
For now, I think it is probably best to avoid firm conclusions about what will become of the Trump boomlet. I do, however, think there are four things that analysts should avoid until we get closer to the actual voting:
1) Don’t Write Him Off
I, along with many election analysts, am a big fan of the political science text “The Party Decides: Presidential Nominations Before and After Reform.” Without getting into the weeds, the book posits that party insiders ultimately decide who the nominees are, and that the voters largely serve to vet these decisions….
2) Don’t Treat Him as the Frontrunner
While it is wrong to dismiss any analyst who takes Trump seriously, it is likewise wrong – indeed it is probably more wrong – to look at polling today and conclude that Trump is the favorite for the nomination. Being the frontrunner is about more than just the polls….