There are still 26 days left before Louisiana holds a runoff election for its open Senate seat, currently being defended by incumbent Mary Landrieu. But unless the polling trends undergo a dramatic shift, challenger Bill Cassidy will be heading to D.C. while Landrieu will remain behind in her parents’ basement.
According to an internal poll conducted by Magellan Strategies, Cassidy owns a 16-point lead, with 56.6% or the vote to Landrieu’s 40.5%. The poll’s sample is 27% black, which is likely to be several points lower than the actual turnout that materializes on Dec. 6.
Landrieu barely edged out Cassidy on the Nov. 4 Election Day, with 42% of the vote to this 41%. Another 14% went to Republican Rob Maness. The election was structured as a jungle primary where 50% threshold needed to be met for victory.
If the Magellan poll turns out to be an accurate forecast of the runoff vote, Cassidy will become the 54th Republican in the 114th Congress, the 53rd seat having been unofficially claimed earlier this week by Alaskan Dan Sullivan, who defeated incumbent Mark Begich.