I wrote recently that Republicans are increasingly viewing the battle for the Senate this fall as a repeat of what happened in 2006 — except in reverse. That is, an unpopular president drags down his party in a handful of swing states and costs his side the majority. But, unlike 2006 when that president was George W. Bush and the victims were Senate Republicans, this time it’s Barack Obama and Senate Democrats who look likely to pay the political price.
Now Republican pollster Patrick Lanne of Public Opinion Strategies is out with a series of charts affirming that 2006 and 2014 are indeed very close analogs — and why that fact should really worry Democrats trying to hold on to their Senate majority. Three in particular caught my eye.
1. With the exception of Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) — who still lost — Republican Senate candidates had a very hard time significantly over-performing Bush’s approval numbers in their state.