[Ed. – To invoke the famous cadence of Nancy Pelosi… “Millennials, millennials, millennials!”]
Simply put, older millennials are more Democratic than younger millennials. “So perhaps,” I speculated, “the attitudes of older millennials were shaped by the perceived unsuccess of [George W.] Bush and those of the younger millennials by the perceived unsuccess of Obama.”
I’m not the only one to reach that conclusion. Over at the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog, George Washington University political scientist John Sides, using data helpfully provided by the Harvard IOP folks, reaches a similar conclusion. Sides reports that party identification among millennials age 23 to 29 is 48 or 49 percent Democratic and 28 to 30 percent Republican — a big lead for Democrats.
Among those 21 and 22, it’s 44 percent Democratic and 32 percent Republican. But those 18 to 20 are Democratic over Republican by only a 41 to 38 percent margin. That seems likely to be at the edge of statistical significance. And it’s a big difference from the older millennials.
The older millennials age 23 to 27 turned 18 between 2003 and 2009, the Bush years. The youngest Millennials age 18 to 20 turned 18 between 2012 and this year, the later Obama years.