Will Nate Silver’s Senate forecast scare Dems into action?

Will Nate Silver’s Senate forecast scare Dems into action?

Nate Silver, the political prognosticator pilloried by Republicans for correctly predicting President Obama’s convincing victory in 2012, has perhaps just given the GOP another reason to curse him.

He has predicted that Republicans are better than even odds to take back the Senate this November.

At first blush, that might seem like something for Republicans to celebrate. Control of the Senate is the Grand Prize up for grabs in this fall’s midterm elections. Few doubt that Republicans will hold on to the House, and most also acknowledge that Republicans are likely to cut into the Democrats’ 55-to-45 majority in the Senate. (There are actually only 53 Senate Democrats, but both Senate Independents side with the Democrats.)

The burning question is whether that Republicans will win enough seats to become the majority. And now Mr. Silver, the web’s foremost political polling analyst and the very man who refused to give Mitt Romney much electoral love two years ago, has suggested on his FiveThirtyEight blog that “Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber.”

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