In a recent reliable poll, Trump is in a virtual dead heat with Joe Biden, while Nikki Haley leads Biden by 16%. If Haley were the Republican nominee, she could give the GOP control of Congress, since presidential candidates with strong leads tend to give their party control of Congress (many voters vote for the same party up and down the ballot). By contrast, if Trump is nominated, Democrats will likely retake control of the House of Representatives in 2024.
The Marquette poll, which correctly predicts election results most of the time, says that
Nikki Haley, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and former governor of South Carolina, holds a larger lead over Biden than does Trump, with 58% of registered voters supporting her and 42% supporting Biden.
Haley holds Republican support against Biden as well as Trump does, while attracting a substantial cross-over vote from Democrats. Independents support Haley by a substantial margin…Her strength with Republicans combined with an ability to attract more Democratic and independent voters than does Trump accounts for her stronger overall support against Biden than Trump’s.
By contrast, Trump only leads Biden by 2% in the Marquette poll — 51% of voters polled prefer Trump versus 49% for Biden. Other polls show Biden with a small lead over Trump, but Haley with a clear lead over Biden.
And Trump’s tiny lead in the Marquette poll will likely disappear if he is convicted in any of the multiple prosecutions brought against him. While the Republican base views these prosecutions as all politically-motivated, independent voters who grudgingly support Trump over Biden say they won’t vote for him if he is convicted. These voters view both Trump and Biden as crooks, and will take a conviction of Trump as proof that he is an even bigger crook than Biden.
Polls show that many swing voters only support Trump against Biden now because they assume the prosecutions against him will fall apart. But it is quite possible that at least one of these prosecutions will succeed, especially since one of them (about mishandling of documents) is based on strong evidence (the fact that Biden also mishandled top-secret documents is not something that Trump can cite as a defense to prosecution. If both Biden and Trump are crooks, but only Trump is convicted, Trump will suffer greater damage politically, because independent voters — unlike Republican base voters — tend to credit the outcomes of the criminal justice system even when it involves Trump being prosecuted).
The Marquette poll has correctly predicted national results the vast majority of the time, and has correctly predicted recent Wisconsin state races as well.
